COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Tracker: Week of April 26

Editor's note: Below you'll find release of the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Tracker originally published April 27, 2021. Visit the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Tracker homepage for the latest data.

By Friday, April 30—President Biden’s 100th day in office—America will have administered well over 200 million COVID-19 shots. This is double the goal set by Biden in December, prior to the official authorization of any vaccines.

While this is a significant achievement, the milestone comes alongside some troubling vaccination trends. As The New York Times reported earlier this week, CDC data shows that about 8% of recipients of a first Pfizer or Moderna dose failed to return for their second shot. This adds up to over 5 million people. The last time the CDC released a report on second dose completion, on March 19, only 4.4% of Pfizer and Moderna recipients failed to get the second shot within the recommended time frame. As more people become eligible to receive the vaccine, more people will inevitably skip out.

We can speculate the reasons why: fears about second dose side effects being worse; the inconvenience of returning for a second appointment; the belief that the protection conferred by one dose is good enough. And part of the problem boils down to logistics: Walgreens, a leader in the federal retail pharmacy program, scheduled some people for second appointments at locations that offered a different vaccine brand than the first appointment.

At the same time, as we reported last week, vaccine enthusiasm appears to be waning for first doses too. For the second week in a row, the number of people who received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine has decreased over the course of seven days. 

A decreasing rate of first doses—and therefore, a decreasing rate of people on their way to full immunization—means states are starting to fall off track when it comes to achieving herd immunity. Based on Biden’s pledge for a sense of normalcy by the 4th of July, we’ve looked closely at which states will fully vaccinate 70% of their populations by the end of June.

The most optimistic projection so far came during the second week of April, when patterns showed 15 states could fully vaccinate 70% of their populations sometime in June. But as of April 27, only six states are still on this timeline: Hawaii, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania.

The good news is that 92% of Moderna and Pfizer vaccine recipients are showing up for second doses, and Johnson & Johnson's vaccine is back on the table as a single-dose option. The United States is no longer hurting for vaccine resources, allowing states to continue to chip away at vaccinations without the constraints of eligibility groups.

 Data by Amanda Morelli/Adrian Nesta